Researchers from the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville studied the effects of four different social distancing policies — school closures, closing restaurants and bars, bans on large gatherings, and shelter-in-place orders — to tease out both their individual and cumulative effects in flattening the curve. They studied the period from March 1, before any of these policies had been put into effect, to April 27, when Georgia became the first state to start relaxing its social distancing measures.
The bottom line, according to their modeling: These government interventions have worked to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.
The bottom line, according to their modeling: These government interventions have worked to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.
Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after 1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20 days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs (10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any of the four measures (35 million).
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/18/21262528/coronavirus-us-state-lockdown-stay-at-home-orders-study